Mohamed El-Erian is in a talkative mood. Within 10 minutes of our hour-long conversation, the chief economic adviser to Allianz, the German insurer, has ruled out a downturn of the American economy, forecast two imminent interest rate cuts in the US and predicted Europe has a 70% chance of falling into recession.

The former co-chief investment officer at Pimco quickly clams up, however, when asked about the circumstances surrounding his surprise departure from the US bond manager in 2014.