Will she or won’t she? This was the burning question over a week in September as Janet Yellen, chair of the US Federal Reserve, agonised over whether to hold or to hike interest rates. As the sense of anticipation mounted, the world held its breath, traders their positions – and economists their pens.

As always, economists were in the front ranks of the army of experts and pundits that postured and pontificated amid intense speculation over the outcome. To whom do we turn for an inkling of how policy will unfold and markets react?