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Pitting the US downgrade against past crises

A US rating downgrade might not be the end of the world, but how bad could it be? New research assesses the effects of five seismic credit events from the past

The United States dodged a bullet earlier this week after rival political factions struck an eleventh-hour deal on the nation's debt ceiling. However, the country is by no means out of the woods yet, not least when it comes to keeping its coveted triple-A credit rating, the loss of which would be a further blow to banks' already pressured trading revenues.

With the US's triple-A credit rating intact but on negative outlook in some quarters, the risk still persists of a downgrade, but while analysts at Bernstein Research in the US believe the loss of the top-notch rating would not be "an end of the world event", it will likely have a negative impact on the debt markets and specifically the revenues of the large fixed-income houses on Wall Street.

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