If JPMorgan chief Jamie Dimon is hit by a bus tomorrow, Daniel Pinto will almost certainly be his immediate replacement. Barring an emergency, though, what are the chances of Pinto, the London-based head of investment banking, landing the top job at Wall Street’s biggest bank?

Dimon, the outspoken chair and chief executive, has run JPMorgan for 14 years. He is famously the longest-serving CEO on Wall Street, though the question of succession is complicated. In 2018, Dimon said he would stay in his current role for “another five years”. When asked about it again last week, Dimon said “my statement stays the same, it’s five years”, theoretically shifting a rolling deadline further out to 2025.