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Don’t blame UK’s economic slowdown on Brexit

There are signs that growth is already improving, but there are also major uncertainties ahead, irrespective of Brexit

Dont blame Brexit: The factors involved in the UK's economic slowdown are not related to leaving the EU
Dont blame Brexit: The factors involved in the UK's economic slowdown are not related to leaving the EU Photo: Gary Waters / Ikon Images / Getty Images

The UK economy has, of course, proved much more resilient than the economics establishment forecast both prior to the Brexit vote and in its aftermath. We all remember Project Fear prior to the referendum, with the Treasury warning of recession and emergency budgets if the British people had the temerity to vote to the leave the EU. And the Treasury was vocally supported by heavyweight authorities from the International Monetary Fund and the Bank of England, to name but two.

In the aftermath of the vote the Bank slashed its growth forecasts in August, to justify its arguably unnecessary monetary easing package, only to revise them up subsequently. Growth in 2017 was expected to be 0.8% in August, then 1.4% in November and 2.0% in February (shaved to 1.9% in May). And the Office for Budget Responsibility, the International Monetary Fund and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development have similarly been in “revisionist” mode.

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