English football supporters have developed a powerful sense of foreboding about penalty shoot-outs. Every time their team reaches the knockout stage of an international competition they assume, when the final whistle has blown and the scores are even, they will be on the next flight home while the Germans go on to lift the trophy.

An observer predicted last week that the fate of European credit derivatives clearing would go much the same way. The regulator's whistle would blow, the pretenders to European credit default swaps clearing would stand in a line waiting to take their penalties - and the shoot-out would be won by Eurex Clearing. Eurex might take as much offence as the average German footballer to that comparison, but it would not be any great surprise if it did carry off the CDS clearing prize.