Scissors-paper-rock – that old schoolyard hand game of trying to trump the opponent's choice of "asset" – produces only random winners. The Bundesbank's plan to trade 600 tonnes of its golden nuggets for paper securities could become another such puerile gamble, given the way markets cut up coupons and dividends.

Ernst Welteke, president of the Bundesbank, has been lobbying hard for gold sales. Two years ago, he floated the idea of investing the proceeds in euro-denominated bonds and stocks because those useful assets would at least provide a return. His Bundesbank colleagues finally bought the concept in January. When the 1999 Washington Accord, which capped sales of gold reserves, is renewed this year, they will seek approval to unload 600 tonnes by 2009. The golden scheme awaits an endorsement by parliament.