As a fund manager, I am watching the party become increasingly boisterous as market momentum powers ahead. I would like to be on my way in the taxi home with my portfolio safely positioned away from the areas of excess optimism before the last dance.

Looking at the UK economy today, it seems to me that there are three possible scenarios. Scenario one is a long period of anaemic growth during which the economy gradually rebalances, avoiding Armageddon, but does not rally very strongly. I believe this outcome has a 75% probability.