In February, I warned that any number of foreseeable crises — “white swans” — could trigger a massive global disturbance this year.

I noted that “the US and Iran have already had a military confrontation that will likely soon escalate; China is in the grip of a viral outbreak that could become a global pandemic; cyberwarfare is ongoing; major holders of US Treasuries are pursuing diversification strategies; the Democratic presidential primary is exposing rifts in the opposition to Trump and already casting doubt on vote-counting processes; rivalries between the US and four revisionist powers are escalating; and the real costs of climate change and other environmental trends are mounting.”