With Covid-19 vaccines being rolled out and supportive fiscal and monetary policies fuelling aggregate demand, the US economy is poised to return to its pre-pandemic output level later this year. The job market’s recovery, however, will be much slower and unevenly distributed, with employment unlikely to return to its pre-pandemic peak until 2024.

If output growth exceeds employment growth over the next few years, productivity will increase (at least temporarily). The Congressional Budget Office’s most recent forecast predicts workforce productivity growth of 1.5% per year for the 2021-25 period, up from an average of 1.2% per year between 2008 and 2020.