One way to think about the plunge and rebound in stocks since “Liberation Day” on April 2 is that beforehand investors thought a 10% tariff would be the worst case, and afterward they thought a 10% tariff was the best case. Stocks fell because tariffs were far bigger than expected, then recovered when tariffs were delayed and talks began.

The outline of a trade deal between the U.S. and the U.K. on Thursday underlined the point: Tariffs of 10% will apply, but no more. To be clear, this is bad news for trade, as well as for drinkers of Scotch whisky and exporters in both directions.