As dealflow in investment banking slows to a pre-Christmas crawl and trading volumes underwhelm, attention inevitably turns to bonuses. If 2008 was the year of the “doughnut” (the zero bonus), and 2009 was the year in which bonuses came back, albeit in a different form, what can bankers and traders expect this year?

Last month the Centre for Economic and Business Research, a think-tank, predicted bonuses across the City of London would be down 4% on last year - 40% off the highs of 2007 but a reasonable result considering the economic outlook.