Investment Banking

Bank dividends face stresses but there are some wildcards

Regulators signalled that they will keep monitoring banks’ balance-sheet strength as economic conditions change, and they hold the options of extending the dividend caps and buyback suspensions

The Federal Reserve’s latest stress tests showed that big US banks should survive the worst Covid-19 scenarios. It isn’t clear yet whether their cash-hungry shareholders will thrive—but the uncertainty could be an opportunity for investors who want some capital appreciation with their yield.

Late on 25 June, the Fed, citing the high level of uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus pandemic and economic recovery, voted 4-to-1 to cap the amount of capital banks can pay out to their common-stock investors in the third quarter. Buybacks are halted through at least the end of September, and bank common-stock dividends are capped at an average of the past four quarters’ earnings.

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