The chances of a trade deal between the UK and the European Union being signed before the end of the year have slid to 43.4%, following the 9 December dinner between Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
The dip from 64.5% on 7 December on betting platform Smarkets follows a statement from the leaders that they will have “further discussions”, despite the two sides disagreeing over three issues: fisheries, governance and the level playing field.