Bank stocks have finally seen a significant rally. To achieve more gains, lenders will have to prove the market was right in bidding the shares higher.

The SPDR S&P Bank ETF is up about 55% to about $48 from a low this year of around $31, hit in early May. Driving the gain at first was expectations that larger banks would benefit from this year’s chaos in regional banking. That proved true: JPMorgan Chase, for example, bought First Republic. which has boosted earnings because the smaller bank was operating profitably until concerns about solvency hit the sector this spring.