Carbon emissions trading volumes are on course to reach €25bn ($35.7bn) by the end of this year, almost double the level of two years ago according to new research, but growth beyond 2012 will depend on the renegotiation of international treaties on climate change.

Celent, a Boston-based research and consulting firm, has predicted a surge in volumes to to €40bn by 2012 if retail investors become active carbon emission trading market participants.