One year after the beginning of the credit crisis, some observers believe the worst is over, that the losses have been taken and that we will soon all be back to business as usual. This view is only half right: we will be back to business as usual in the financial world, but with fewer banks and fewer bankers.

A look at some long-run history can upset the easy optimism about what happens in and after crises. Economic historians identify two big shifts in activity and employment over the past 200 years: the shift from agriculture to manufacturing of the 19th century, and a move away from the “old” manufacturing into services in the 20th century.