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European bank stocks have thrived. Shadows are hanging over them

Shares are up by a third this year, aided by the advance of the euro against the dollar. But with the ECB loosening and US tariffs a major uncertainty, the way ahead could be more difficult

A BNP Paribas branch in Paris. The bank’s shares have struggled to recover from a punishing 2024.
A BNP Paribas branch in Paris. The bank’s shares have struggled to recover from a punishing 2024. Photo: Nathan Laine/Bloomberg

European stocks have been the surprise success story of 2025, and banks the surprise within Europe. The iShares MSCI Europe Financials exchange-traded fund has soared by a third this year, boosted by a 9% jump in the euro versus the dollar. U.S. peers have advanced 5%.

Further gains could be tougher. “The catch-up has happened,” says Emmanuel Cau, head of European equity strategy at Barclays Investment Bank. “The market may need some time to adjust now.”

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