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Five contrary indicators

On the flip side, the financial markets have not entirely settled back into their pre-crisis routine. Here are several indicators that still have a long way to go before they get near pre-crisis trends.

On the flip side, the financial markets have not entirely settled back into their pre-crisis routine. Here are several indicators that still have a long way to go before they get near pre-crisis trends.

  • Sovereign risk remains stubborn

Credit default swaps on sovereign debt, offering insurance against default, were rarely traded in 2007. The transfer of the financial crisis from bank balance sheets to governments, through bailouts and guarantees has meant spreads ballooning and trading levels booming. A case in point is the UK, whose CDS price has shot up from 1 basis point in August 2007, to 68bp on September 21 this year. Complacency around the likelihood of default among major sovereigns may have disappeared for some time.

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