Custodians do not have a particularly impressive record of picking the next hot market. A decade ago, they were enthusing over Japan, pointing out the vast cash deposits held in post office accounts and predicting their imminent transfer into equity-based funds, which never happened.

Five years later, they were getting excited about Germany, then Italy, then Spain. Now they are pouring resources into China, many having failed to make material progress in any of the markets mentioned previously.