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The Bank of England surprised the City yesterday with the revelation that two of its nine senior economists had voted to raise interest-rates at their latest meeting – the first time that the 9-0 unanimity on the current emergency 0.5% base-rate has been broken in three years. Apparently paradoxically, this followed inflation figures that came in unexpectedly low earlier this month. We thought our readers could do with some cheer in the Dog Days of Summer, so we’ve taken HM Treasury’s monthly rundown of City forecasts, and pulled out the 10 banks and consulting firms with the rosiest view of UK economic prospects in 2014 and 2015. We ranked them by 2014 GDP forecast, by Q4 interest-rate prediction, and by their estimates for the unemployment rate at year end, since this may or may not be one of the things that Mark Carney would like us to bear in mind …

In UK macroeconomics, things are finally beginning to get interesting again...

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Fareed Sahloul

Morgan Stanley names Esteve head of equity syndicate in Europe

JPMorgan promotes de Grivel Nigam in European ECM shake-up

UBS transfers 544 more UK Credit Suisse staff across as integration continues

Senior GIC private equity lawyer joins Dechert in London

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US law firm hires private equity specialist from key client

Barclays poaches Citi managing director for wealth private credit push

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Dale Walsh will accelerate growth of the private bank and wealth management’s lending business

Northern Trust taps UN pension fund for head of international role

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Pedro Guazo, who joins in August, will also oversee the $1.3tn asset manager’s responsible investment platform globally

The president and his aides oversaw a last-minute blitz of meetings and phone calls with Republican holdouts.

By Natalie Andrews, Alex Leary and Lindsay Wise

How Trump Got His ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ Across the Finish Line

New legislation could push federal debt into dangerous territory—without an emergency requiring it.

Wall Street Worries as Crisis-Level Deficits Become the Government’s Default Mode

Regulators fined the fast-fashion retailer more than $40 million for what they deemed to be misleading practices on prices and environmental claims.

French Regulators Fine Shein for Misleading Discounts

David Frame is named global head of the private bank, helping deep-pocketed clients invest more abroad.

JPMorgan Is Revamping Its Bank for the Superrich to Cater to Global Clientele

Keir Starmer initially refused to confirm if Rachel Reeves would remain in post, causing sterling and gilts to sell off sharply.

U.K. Government Bonds, Pound Recover After Prime Minister Backs Treasury Chief

The narrow vote delivered the president a major second-term legislative victory.

By Richard Rubin, Olivia Beavers and Lindsay Wise

House Passes Trump’s Megabill in GOP Triumph

The deal with Vietnam seeks to stop Chinese-made goods from transiting through the Southeast Asian country to avoid higher duties.

Vietnam Trade Deal Takes Aim at Back Door for Chinese Goods

Hot weather and lax dress codes have us baring more at work.

By Callum Borchers | Photographs by Lucia Buricelli for WSJ 

It’s the Summer of Too Much Skin at the Office

Ford chief predicts AI will replace “literally half of all white-collar workers.”

CEOs Start Saying the Quiet Part Out Loud: AI Will Wipe Out Jobs

The precision-measurement company has withdrawn its recommendation for its previously agreed takeover offer from Advent International.

Spectris Agrees to $5.64 Billion KKR Takeover

Spectris Agrees to $5.64 Billion KKR Takeover; Withdraws Advent Recommendation

The dollar lost momentum ahead of an expected decline in U.S. job creation, as investors expect the Fed to start cutting interest rates in coming months.

Dollar Trims Gains as Investors Brace for Cooling Jobs Market

The tech giant has been ramping up efforts to boost business growth in a bid to defend its place in China’s tech and commerce industries, as well as grow abroad.

Alibaba Readies $7 Billion Boost for Commerce Unit, Plans New Data Centers

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