The relief among commentators and in the markets is palpable. Around the world, people are "calling the bottom" and declaring the worst of the financial crisis over. Here at Lombard Odier we remain cautious, perhaps because of long experience: we have endured in excess of 40 such crises across more than 200 years of banking.

What is the basis of our caution this time around? True, the liquidity crisis seems to have passed and the solvency issues in banking are being addressed. Yet, we still haven't seen any significant restructuring of debt - vital, we believe, if economies are to return to an even keel. US consumer debt is $44 trillion, three times US GDP.