It is one month since the world woke up on September 15 to the news that Lehman Brothers had gone bust – a month in which the world financial system has been shaken to its core and turned inside out. While it is premature to call the end of the crisis, it may just be possible to start painting a picture of what the world may look like on the other side.

1.The investment banking industry will return to being a business with returns marginally higher than those of a regulated utility, as investors accept that returns on equity in the mid- to high-20s were always going to be unsustainable. Capital requirements will rise from their arbitrary and artificially low levels, leverage will fall (perhaps even to single digits…), and, even though writedowns on more toxic assets will slow, banks loan books will continue to bleed for several years to come.