Just as the end of the Covid-19 pandemic has repeatedly failed to arrive as predicted, so too has the end of the boom for investment banks. Almost every quarter over the past two years, bank leaders have said it can’t last. But it has.

After record-breaking profits and bumper bonuses expected for 2021, things look certain to slow down in 2022. Yet to most observers, the outlook still appears bright compared with most of the period since the financial crisis.