Emerging market debt traders are staying overweight Russia – less so than earlier this year, but with assured conviction about its mid-term prospects. Spreads on Russia's sovereign eurobonds, which tightened in mid-July in response to the Brazilian crisis, have widened again, confirming Russia's role as a safe haven.

Optimists now expect Russia to attain investment grade in two or three years, and even the pessimists compare it unfavourably only to eastern European EU candidates. There are three notches to go both at Standard & Poor's, which last month upgraded Russia to BB-, its level prior to the 1998 crisis, and at Moody's, which rates Russia Ba3. The optimists certainly have a case.