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Is the credit rally for real?

The banks are starting to lend again but some analysts urge caution

In Eugene O’Neill’s 1930s play The Iceman Cometh, a group of misfits spend their time in a bar waiting for the salesman, Hickey, to arrive. Whenever he drops in Hickey always goes on a free-spending binge that drives the party. With positive data continuing to stream out of the credit markets this week, it has seemed to many that Hickey has finally arrived, pumping liquidity into the markets.

In its loan officer survey, published on Monday last week, the US Federal Reserve said that more than half the banks covered in the report had stopped restricting their lending standards in the two months to May 4, making it easier for companies to borrow money. At the end of last year, that figure was above 80%. While still significant, the drop in lending restrictions is a positive outcome for the market.

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