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Mohamed El-Erian: The race between economics and Covid-19

Now that the coronavirus pandemic is transforming economic life the world over, the profession has no choice but to leave its comfort zone

G20 leaders to discuss the COVID-19 coronavirus via a videoconference
G20 leaders to discuss the COVID-19 coronavirus via a videoconference Photo: Gary Ramage/AFP/Getty

With the coronavirus devastating one economy after another, the economics profession — and thus the analytical underpinnings for sound policymaking and crisis management — is having to play catch-up. Of particular concern now are the economics of viral contagion, of fear, and of “circuit breakers”. The more that economic thinking advances to meet changing realities, the better will be the analysis that informs the policy response.

That response is set to be both novel and inevitably costly. Governments and central banks are pursuing unprecedented measures to mitigate the global downturn, lest a now-certain global recession gives way to a depression (already an uncomfortably high risk). As they do, we will likely see a further erosion of the distinction between mainstream economics in advanced economies and in developing economies.

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