It is staggering to see how the most senior people in the financial system are almost universally convinced that the US economy is enjoying sustained growth that could lead to higher interest rates.

Hedge fund titans, prominent investors, and bank CEOs alike proclaim that robust growth and burgeoning inflation will prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to 3.5% within the next year, pushing the 10-year US Treasury yield, now 2.9%, closer to 4%.