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What could trigger a recession in the US?

If higher interest rates are unlikely to be the precipitating factor in the next recession, what about financial excesses?

What could trigger a recession in the US?
Photo: Getty Images

Is there an economic winter coming?

In the past, a tightening labour market after a period of expansion served as an early warning sign. Workers would become more difficult to find, wages would start climbing, corporate profit margins would tend to shrink, and firms would start raising prices. Fearing inflation, the central bank would then raise interest rates, which in turn would depress corporate investment and spur layoffs.

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