Earlier this year I wrote that the best win-double bet of 2002 was that Lukas Mühlemann of Credit Suisse and Bill Harrison of JP Morgan Chase would fall by the end of the year. "You've got a bloody cheek," snapped one senior JP Morgan banker before adding, "What odds are you offering?"

With Mühlemann unceremoniously dumped by Credit Suisse a week last Thursday, one leg of the double has already come up. But what about the second leg? Will JP Morgan Chase's chairman and chief executive Harrison survive? Just to test the water I rang the Morgan banker mentioned earlier to ask his opinion. Would you believe that he replied: "I've just been checking my e-mails to see who is organising the leaving parties."